V-Lab
Hatch Work Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
7,586.63
increased by 371.93
1 Week
6,886.70
decreased by 328.00
1 Month
6,338.17
decreased by 876.53
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 26, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6915 | 0.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2657 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7343 | 0.03 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8062 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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