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Hatch Work Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

7,586.63

increased by 371.93

1 Week

6,886.70

decreased by 328.00

1 Month

6,338.17

decreased by 876.53

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Hatch Work Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 26, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6915
0.07
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2657
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7343
0.03
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.8062
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

77016 days