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Formosa Oilseed Processing Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

9,133.66

increased by 262.65

1 Week

6,313.26

decreased by 2,557.75

1 Month

4,001.97

decreased by 4,869.04

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Formosa Oilseed Processing ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 53319 trading days (~211.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2928
0.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2245
0.05
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7755
0.17
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.3543
0.36
γ2-0.8737
-0.84
γ30.6866
0.49
γ4-0.1358
-0.86
γ50.0637
0.09
γ6-0.2937
-0.91
γ70.3681
1.31
γ8-0.5557
-1.45

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

53319 days