V-Lab
Formosa Oilseed Processing Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
9,133.66
increased by 262.65
1 Week
6,313.26
decreased by 2,557.75
1 Month
4,001.97
decreased by 4,869.04
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 53319 trading days (~211.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2928 | 0.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2245 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7755 | 0.17 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3543 | 0.36 |
| γ2 | -0.8737 | -0.84 |
| γ3 | 0.6866 | 0.49 |
| γ4 | -0.1358 | -0.86 |
| γ5 | 0.0637 | 0.09 |
| γ6 | -0.2937 | -0.91 |
| γ7 | 0.3681 | 1.31 |
| γ8 | -0.5557 | -1.45 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
53319 days
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