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Formosa Oilseed Processing Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

7,123.70

increased by 25.44

1 Week

5,711.80

decreased by 1,386.46

1 Month

3,929.78

decreased by 3,168.48

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Formosa Oilseed Processing ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 77% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0980
14.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8645
299.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0752
5.83***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days