Tianjin Cap Envmntl Protn Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
3,871.76
decreased by 182.03
1 Week
4,122.90
increased by 69.11
1 Month
3,887.41
decreased by 166.38
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 54 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2173 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0579 | 2.41** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9293 | 26.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3719 | -2.44** |
| γ2 | 0.5449 | 2.61*** |
| γ3 | -0.0485 | -0.42 |
| γ4 | -0.1592 | -1.38 |
| γ5 | -0.3115 | -1.71* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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