V-Lab
Tianjin Cap Envmntl Protn ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,988.60
1 Week
4,540.92
1 Month
6,355.75
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3824 | 0.20 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4376 | 4.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3824 | -0.10 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.31 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0717 | 0.27 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9283 | 9.67*** |
Persistence:
0.629
Half-life:
1 days
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