V-Lab
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
416.97
increased by 38.75
1 Week
371.97
decreased by 6.25
1 Month
386.57
increased by 8.35
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 745 trading days (~3.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~745 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7172 | 3.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0771 | 3.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9219 | 36.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.9659 | -1.68* |
| γ2 | 2.3154 | 1.80* |
| γ3 | -2.1694 | -1.84* |
| γ4 | 0.8903 | 1.47 |
| γ5 | -0.1563 | -0.29 |
| γ6 | 0.3179 | 0.46 |
| γ7 | -0.3320 | -0.63 |
| γ8 | 0.1037 | 0.37 |
0.999
Persistence745d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7172 | 3.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0771 | 3.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9219 | 36.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.9659 | -1.68* |
| γ2 | 2.3154 | 1.80* |
| γ3 | -2.1694 | -1.84* |
| γ4 | 0.8903 | 1.47 |
| γ5 | -0.1563 | -0.29 |
| γ6 | 0.3179 | 0.46 |
| γ7 | -0.3320 | -0.63 |
| γ8 | 0.1037 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
745 days
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