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China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

416.97

increased by 38.75

1 Week

371.97

decreased by 6.25

1 Month

386.57

increased by 8.35

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC

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graph of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 745 trading days (~3.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~745 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7172
3.91***
αARCH0.0771
3.05***
βGARCH0.9219
36.88***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.9659
-1.68*
γ22.3154
1.80*
γ3-2.1694
-1.84*
γ40.8903
1.47
γ5-0.1563
-0.29
γ60.3179
0.46
γ7-0.3320
-0.63
γ80.1037
0.37

0.999

Persistence

745d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7172
3.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0771
3.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9219
36.88***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.9659
-1.68*
γ22.3154
1.80*
γ3-2.1694
-1.84*
γ40.8903
1.47
γ5-0.1563
-0.29
γ60.3179
0.46
γ7-0.3320
-0.63
γ80.1037
0.37

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

745 days