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China Southern Airlines Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

498.25

increased by 79.81

1 Week

397.19

decreased by 21.25

1 Month

378.93

decreased by 39.51

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC

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graph of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.1730
3.03***
βGARCH0.7006
4.99***
γleverage-0.0216
-0.48
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
1.66*
λ₂forecast adj.0.2444
2.21**
λ₃tau persistence0.7556
7.95***

0.863

Persistence

5d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1730
3.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7006
4.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0216
-0.48
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
1.66*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2444
2.21**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7556
7.95***

Persistence:

0.863

Half-life:

5 days