V-Lab
Epiroc Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
5,690.13
increased by 5,203.03
1 Week
1,611.15
increased by 1,124.05
1 Month
720.24
increased by 233.14
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2018 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2141 | 2.55** |
| αARCH | 0.1969 | 3.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7847 | 18.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.6611 | -2.36** |
| γ2 | 1.1476 | 2.57** |
| γ3 | -0.6367 | -1.59 |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2141 | 2.55** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1969 | 3.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7847 | 18.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.6611 | -2.36** |
| γ2 | 1.1476 | 2.57** |
| γ3 | -0.6367 | -1.59 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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