V-Lab
Tecan Group Ag Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
3,915.94
increased by 1,948.14
1 Week
2,467.02
increased by 499.22
1 Month
2,482.25
increased by 514.45
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5948 | 2.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0728 | 2.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9092 | 24.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.2194 | -1.43 |
| γ2 | 0.5629 | 2.38** |
| γ3 | -0.5118 | -2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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