Daimler Truck Holding Ag Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
4,715.73
decreased by 194.56
1 Week
5,091.11
increased by 180.82
1 Month
4,949.35
increased by 39.06
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Nov 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1283 | 7.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0447 | 3.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9483 | 54.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0709 | 0.94 |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1283 | 7.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0447 | 3.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9483 | 54.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0709 | 0.94 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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