V-Lab
Dap Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
6,152.65
increased by 5,172.24
1 Week
2,157.88
increased by 1,177.47
1 Month
1,278.91
increased by 298.50
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 29, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 779 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3277 | 5.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1758 | 15.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8233 | 69.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0109 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
779 days
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