V-Lab
Sfa Engineering Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
11.97
decreased by 1.00
1 Week
11.40
decreased by 1.57
1 Month
15.28
increased by 2.31
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 2003 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 54 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0133 | 9.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1222 | 15.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8650 | 101.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0032 | 2.09** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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