V-Lab
CosLeaguer Global Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
11,196.72
increased by 6,476.04
1 Week
5,598.50
increased by 877.82
1 Month
3,389.45
decreased by 1,331.23
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 38508 trading days (~152.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0016 | 7.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2479 | 0.27 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7521 | 0.82 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.3240 | -4.24*** |
| γ2 | 0.4363 | 3.39*** |
| γ3 | -0.1025 | -0.61 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
38508 days
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