SPIC Green Energy Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
61.24
decreased by 13.42
1 Week
58.65
decreased by 16.01
1 Month
56.40
decreased by 18.26
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0377 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2714 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7286 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7214 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 3.4009 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -6.8734 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 7.5564 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -4.7836 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 1.8911 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.6993 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 0.0656 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.5396 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -0.7441 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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