V-Lab
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
27.41
increased by 4.43
1 Week
24.74
increased by 1.76
1 Month
27.45
increased by 4.47
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.7348 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2855 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7145 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.1062 | |
| γ2 | -0.3771 | |
| γ3 | 0.7029 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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