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Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

27.41

increased by 4.43

1 Week

24.74

increased by 1.76

1 Month

27.45

increased by 4.47

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 10, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.7348
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2855
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7145
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.1062
γ2-0.3771
γ30.7029

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days