United Maritime Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
50.14%
1 Week
54.93%
1 Month
57.97%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3264 | 14.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3264 | -14.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.1437 | 0.15 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.17 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.163
Half-life:
0 days
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