Innovator Uncapped Accelerated US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.78%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
17.08%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
17.82%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8416 | 69.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1710 | 18.62*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4142 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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