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V-Lab

Innovator Uncapped Accelerated US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

16.78%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

17.08%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

17.82%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Innovator Uncapped Accelerated US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 11, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8416
69.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1710
18.62***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.4142
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.927

Half-life:

9 days