V-Lab
Innovator Uncapped Accelerated US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
15.69%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
16.18%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
17.36%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 2022 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8418 | 70.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1728 | 19.15*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4363 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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