V-Lab
CBOE Silver ETF Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Inactive
Last recorded values (Monday, February 14th, 2022):
1 Day
87.85%
1 Week
74.84%
1 Month
65.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 3, 2022 at 05:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Feb 11, 2022Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1348 | 5.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1554 | 2.56** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4405 | 3.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5652 | 0.85 |
| γ2 | -0.8465 | -0.82 |
| γ3 | 0.4974 | 0.80 |
| γ4 | -0.6054 | -0.94 |
| γ5 | 0.7766 | 1.13 |
| γ6 | -0.5452 | -0.97 |
| γ7 | 0.2171 | 0.39 |
| γ8 | 0.5505 | 0.85 |
| γ9 | -1.8416 | -3.01*** |
| γ10 | 1.8300 | 4.90*** |
Persistence:
0.596
Half-life:
1 days
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