V-Lab
CBOE Silver ETF Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Inactive
Last recorded values (Monday, February 14th, 2022):
1 Day
80.31%
1 Week
65.77%
1 Month
52.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 03:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Feb 11, 2022Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9988 | 5.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.1510 | 2.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4888 | 3.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0256 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -0.0918 | -0.47 |
| γ3 | 0.1070 | 0.86 |
| γ4 | 0.1396 | 1.12 |
| γ5 | -0.7496 | -3.78*** |
0.640
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9988 | 5.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1510 | 2.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4888 | 3.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0256 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -0.0918 | -0.47 |
| γ3 | 0.1070 | 0.86 |
| γ4 | 0.1396 | 1.12 |
| γ5 | -0.7496 | -3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.640
Half-life:
2 days
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