V-Lab
Valid Solucoes E Servicos De MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.96%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
30.58%
increased by 1.18%
1 Month
33.49%
increased by 4.09%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0600 | 16.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7991 | 94.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0900 | 13.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0054 | 2.15** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0132 | 5.32*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9860 | 345.35*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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