V-Lab
Valid Solucoes E Servicos De Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
27.39%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
29.29%
increased by 1.43%
1 Month
32.83%
increased by 4.97%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0691 | 5.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1196 | 7.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7676 | 25.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0373 | 0.68 |
| γ2 | 0.0079 | 0.10 |
| γ3 | -0.0717 | -1.65* |
| γ4 | 0.0630 | 1.80* |
| γ5 | -0.1176 | -3.18*** |
| γ6 | 0.1218 | 3.71*** |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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