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Valid Solucoes E Servicos De GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

26.71%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Week

27.43%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

29.82%

increased by 1.87%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Valid Solucoes E Servicos De GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 27, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.9409
3.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0831
24.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9809
183.76***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9651
10.00***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days