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Valid Solucoes E Servicos De GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
26.71%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
27.43%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
29.82%
increased by 1.87%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.9409 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 24.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9809 | 183.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9651 | 10.00*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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