V-Lab
US Dollar to Polish Zloty GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
6.01%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
6.12%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
6.50%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 73% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0040 | 20.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0679 | 26.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9367 | 614.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0287 | -8.23*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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