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V-Lab

US Dollar to Polish Zloty GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

6.01%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

6.12%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

6.50%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Polish Zloty GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 73% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0040
20.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0679
26.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9367
614.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0287
-8.23***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days