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US Dollar to Polish Zloty GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

7.77%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

7.80%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

7.93%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Polish Zloty GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 247 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5980
5.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0223
79.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9972
2,177.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6468
80.50***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

247 days