V-Lab
US Dollar to Polish Zloty GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7.77%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
7.80%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
7.93%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 247 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5980 | 5.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0223 | 79.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 2,177.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6468 | 80.50*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
247 days
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