V-Lab
US Dollar to Indonesian Rupiah GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
10.52%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
10.55%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
10.67%
decreased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 452 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2847 | 11.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0650 | 169.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9985 | 8,320.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1163 | 4,046.51*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
452 days
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