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V-Lab

US Dollar to Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.42%

increased by 0.45%

1 Week

4.50%

increased by 0.53%

1 Month

4.85%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 45% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1822
29.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7674
84.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0565
-7.07***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0002
6.20***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0334
7.02***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9666
191.93***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days