V-Lab
Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
8.83%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
9.58%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
11.36%
increased by 1.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2003 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6807 | 4.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.2022 | 7.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7340 | 20.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.2857 | 4.09*** |
| γ2 | -0.5478 | -5.12*** |
| γ3 | 0.3914 | 5.21*** |
| γ4 | -0.2220 | -3.53*** |
| γ5 | 0.2137 | 4.12*** |
| γ6 | -0.2101 | -4.17*** |
| γ7 | 0.1191 | 3.15*** |
0.936
Persistence11d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6807 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2022 | 7.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7340 | 20.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.2857 | 4.09*** |
| γ2 | -0.5478 | -5.12*** |
| γ3 | 0.3914 | 5.21*** |
| γ4 | -0.2220 | -3.53*** |
| γ5 | 0.2137 | 4.12*** |
| γ6 | -0.2101 | -4.17*** |
| γ7 | 0.1191 | 3.15*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
11 days
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