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V-Lab

Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

14.45%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

14.83%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

16.23%

increased by 1.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2003 to Mar 19, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 343 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 75% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0236
24.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1353
24.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8121
194.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1011
9.47***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

343 days