V-Lab
Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.45%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
14.83%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
16.23%
increased by 1.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2003 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 343 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 75% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0236 | 24.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1353 | 24.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8121 | 194.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1011 | 9.47*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
343 days
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