V-Lab
Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
9.84%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
10.39%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
12.33%
increased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2003 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 72% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~218 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 72% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0236 | 6.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.1344 | 6.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8137 | 49.42*** |
| γleverage | 0.0974 | 2.33** |
0.997
Persistence218d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0236 | 6.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1344 | 6.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8137 | 49.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0974 | 2.33** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
218 days
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