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V-Lab

Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

13.95%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

14.15%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

14.87%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2003 to Mar 19, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6763
6.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1378
45.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9873
533.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.9064
12.71***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days