V-Lab
Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.95%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
14.15%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
14.87%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2003 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6763 | 6.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1378 | 45.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9873 | 533.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.9064 | 12.71*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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