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V-Lab

Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Stock Price Index TOPIX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

19.07%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

19.17%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Month

19.50%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Stock Price Index TOPIX S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0420
11.42***
αARCH0.1212
10.33***
βGARCH0.8456
69.29***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.34

0.967

Persistence

21d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0420
11.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1212
10.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8456
69.29***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.34

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days