V-Lab
Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Stock Price Index TOPIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.63%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
20.67%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Month
20.76%
decreased by 1.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0147 | 4.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7652 | 122.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1967 | 35.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0360 | 4.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0811 | 4.65*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8951 | 40.32*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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