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V-Lab

Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Stock Price Index TOPIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

20.63%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Week

20.67%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Month

20.76%

decreased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Stock Price Index TOPIX MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0147
4.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7652
122.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1967
35.00***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0360
4.41***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0811
4.65***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8951
40.32***

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days