V-Lab
Amplify Stablecoin Technology Leaders ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
4.04%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
924.25%
increased by 919.62%
1 Month
28,941,440,185,312.14%
increased by 28,941,440,185,307.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 23, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0009 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8968 | 2.50** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1904 | 0.64 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0026 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0016 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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