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V-Lab

S&P 1000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

14.24%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

14.50%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

15.18%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 1000 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 29, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8673
90.35***
γleverage0.1768
12.57***
λ₁tau intercept0.0058
1.85*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0326
3.92***
λ₃tau persistence0.9636
98.04***

0.956

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8673
90.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1768
12.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0058
1.85*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0326
3.92***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9636
98.04***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days