V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
10.10%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
10.16%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
10.39%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 197 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~197 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0038 | 4.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0529 | 5.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9423 | 169.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.0025 | 0.15 |
0.996
Persistence197d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0038 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0529 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9423 | 169.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0025 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
197 days
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