S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, May 18th, 2026
1 Day
26.79%
increased by 0.28%
1 Week
26.81%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
26.90%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, May 15, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0024 | 10.03 | |
| 0.0554 | 17.52 | |
| 0.9607 | 486.66 | |
| -0.0322 | -9.09 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to May 15, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to May 15, 2026
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