V-Lab
S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
18.23%
increased by 1.46%
1 Week
18.35%
increased by 1.58%
1 Month
18.39%
increased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0504 | 4.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8091 | 22.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.0183 | 1.31 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0284 | 2.42** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0724 | 3.39*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9075 | 32.01*** |
0.869
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0504 | 4.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8091 | 22.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0183 | 1.31 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0284 | 2.42** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0724 | 3.39*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9075 | 32.01*** |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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