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V-Lab

S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

18.41%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

18.08%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

17.27%

decreased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0012
0.58
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9085
233.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0752
24.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0144
2.62***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0639
4.05***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9204
44.71***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days