V-Lab
iShares Silver Trust Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
40.51%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
40.39%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
39.94%
decreased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0211 | 4.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0609 | 4.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9228 | 60.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0301 | -1.99** |
| γ2 | 0.0567 | 2.71*** |
| γ3 | -0.0371 | -3.57*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0211 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0609 | 4.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9228 | 60.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0301 | -1.99** |
| γ2 | 0.0567 | 2.71*** |
| γ3 | -0.0371 | -3.57*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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