V-Lab
iShares Silver Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
40.10%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Week
40.05%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
39.89%
decreased by 1.43%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 41% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0348 | 13.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0728 | 12.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9312 | 286.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0211 | -2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
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