V-Lab
iShares Silver Trust Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
41.86%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
41.89%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
41.98%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4150 | 6.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.0614 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9252 | 63.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0076 | 3.19*** |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4150 | 6.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9252 | 63.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0076 | 3.19*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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