V-Lab
Softbank Group Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
81.98%
increased by 4.75%
1 Week
81.74%
increased by 4.51%
1 Month
80.80%
increased by 3.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 16, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.9758 | 4.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0780 | 44.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9932 | 689.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7100 | 10.76*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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