V-Lab
Securitize Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
108.72%
decreased by 34.23%
1 Week
106.75%
decreased by 36.20%
1 Month
99.69%
decreased by 43.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 2, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.6654 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2088 | 28.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9769 | 214.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2083 | 19.81*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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