V-Lab
Securitize Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
314.45%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
324.89%
increased by 9.29%
1 Month
328.11%
increased by 12.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 2, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4415 | 2.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0668 | 1.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2530 | 0.47 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 102.7430 | 1.53 |
| γ2 | -216.9626 | -2.36** |
| γ3 | 322.8651 | 5.01*** |
| γ4 | -502.9975 | -5.63*** |
| γ5 | 612.7836 | 5.96*** |
| γ6 | -605.9363 | -7.05*** |
| γ7 | 498.5805 | 6.26*** |
| γ8 | -248.1264 | -2.90*** |
| γ9 | 51.3289 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.320
Half-life:
1 days
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