Rabbit Holdings PCL MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
101.55%
increased by 40.27%
1 Week
110.66%
increased by 49.38%
1 Month
135.15%
increased by 73.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1985 | 5.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4650 | 10.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0054 | -0.17 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7680 | 0.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1285 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.661
Half-life:
2 days
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