Rabbit Holdings PCL Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
69.98%
increased by 32.14%
1 Week
69.27%
increased by 31.43%
1 Month
67.04%
increased by 29.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2395 | 1.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1204 | 5.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8405 | 29.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2271 | 0.54 |
| γ2 | -0.6391 | -1.20 |
| γ3 | 0.6407 | 4.01*** |
| γ4 | -0.0714 | -0.51 |
| γ5 | -0.5534 | -4.80*** |
| γ6 | 0.7471 | 6.88*** |
| γ7 | -0.7533 | -5.89*** |
| γ8 | 0.7190 | 8.00*** |
| γ9 | -0.4173 | -5.05*** |
| γ10 | 0.1326 | 1.61 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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