V-Lab
Rabbit Holdings PCL Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.73%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
41.80%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
47.64%
increased by 6.39%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2441 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1209 | 5.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8390 | 29.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2335 | 0.57 |
| γ2 | -0.6496 | -1.23 |
| γ3 | 0.6585 | 4.05*** |
| γ4 | -0.1046 | -0.74 |
| γ5 | -0.5212 | -4.49*** |
| γ6 | 0.7297 | 6.89*** |
| γ7 | -0.7474 | -5.99*** |
| γ8 | 0.7223 | 7.92*** |
| γ9 | -0.4238 | -5.44*** |
| γ10 | 0.1330 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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