Rabbit Holdings PCL GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
62.94%
increased by 6.45%
1 Week
64.33%
increased by 7.84%
1 Month
69.52%
increased by 13.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 202 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 155% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4074 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0284 | 4.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9461 | 296.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0441 | 4.62*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
202 days
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