V-Lab
Proshares Ultra QQQ TOP 30 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
54.88%
increased by 0.77%
1 Week
55.67%
increased by 1.56%
1 Month
56.45%
increased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9948 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.3445 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
134 days
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