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V-Lab

Proshares Ultra QQQ TOP 30 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

54.88%

increased by 0.77%

1 Week

55.67%

increased by 1.56%

1 Month

56.45%

increased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Proshares Ultra QQQ TOP 30 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9948
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
0.00
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.3445
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

134 days