S&P/NZX 50 Total Return Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, June 9th, 2026
1 Day
18.02%
increased by 9.45%
1 Week
483.99%
increased by 475.42%
1 Month
2,254,996,851.44%
increased by 2,254,996,842.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 05:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | ||
| 0.7171 | 7,171,360.00 | |
| 0.0329 | 328,640.00 | |
| 0.5000 | 5,000,000.00 | |
| 0.1188 | 8.41 | |
| 0.7161 | 14.08 | |
| 0.0554 | 0.76 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 2001 to Jun 5, 2026
Jan 2, 2001 to Jun 5, 2026
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