V-Lab
Next PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
22.36%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
22.89%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
24.30%
increased by 1.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 324% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0222 | 11.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8788 | 118.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0719 | 17.02*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0203 | 1.94* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0157 | 2.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9783 | 115.97*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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