V-Lab
Next PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
23.01%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
23.54%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
24.91%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9983 | 7.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0760 | 7.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8610 | 44.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0268 | -0.79 |
| γ2 | 0.1673 | 3.15*** |
| γ3 | -0.2597 | -5.57*** |
| γ4 | 0.1634 | 3.01*** |
| γ5 | -0.0093 | -0.16 |
| γ6 | -0.1247 | -2.46** |
| γ7 | 0.2126 | 3.81*** |
| γ8 | -0.2241 | -3.28*** |
| γ9 | 0.1371 | 1.99** |
| γ10 | -0.0368 | -0.83 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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